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Resource Hunter Capital Corp. Phosphate Mining in West Africa

Phosphate Demand

"Demand for fertilizers is driven by the need for food, which in turn is driven by the size and wealth of the population."

 

3 Key Drivers for Fertilizer Demand

  1. Increase in World Population
  2. Increase of Wealth in Emerging Economies
  3. Decrease in Arable Land Worldwide

 

Increase in World Population
World population totals 6,897,078,213 people with projections indicating that the 7 billion marker will be reached in 2012.World population is expected to surpass 9 billion by roughly 2045. Asia represents roughly 60% of the world's yearly population growth. As the world population increases the demand for fertilizer will continue to grow at a consistent pace.

Increase of Wealth in Emerging Economies
With the growth in wealth of emerging economies such as China, India & Brazil the desire for a more varied diet means that food production will increase. Increased demand for food will have a positive effect on the demand for fertilizers such as phosphate. China's current GDP totals $5.8 trillion and is expected to reach $10 trillion by 2015.

Decrease In Arable Land
Worldwide arable land per person has decreased by almost half since the 1960’s. Current forecasts see arable land decreasing at a faster rate due to population increases worldwide.As arable land becomes scarce the demand for fertilizers will increase to replenish the soil with nutrients.

Phosphate is mainly used in the production of fertilizers (85% of world phosphate utilisation). Animal feeds, human food complements (8%), industrial uses (5%) and specialty chemicals (2%) account for the remainder. Global fertilizer demand for phosphate is therefore the main driver for the growth of phosphate rock production as there are no known significant substitutes or alternatives to the application of phosphates in that field.

Increase in World Population

Fertilizer consumption is closely correlated to world population growth. World population has steadily increased in the past 60 years and is expected to reach 9.2 bn in 2050 (source: United Nations) up from 7.2bn currently.

World Population Growth, billion people

World Population Growth

Source: FCA

Increased Caloric Consumption

An additional factor to fertilizer consumption growth is the worldwide increasing calorie intake per capita. This phenomenon is particularly strong in the developing world with China and India leading the change. High calorie intake diets are becoming widespread with increasing prevalence of meat, dairy, and oilseeds which are all increasing the demand for grain, stockfeeds and agricultural production in general.

Average Diet, kcal/capita per day

Average Diet

Source: FCA

Decrease in Arable Land

As arable land expansion is being superseded by population growth, the only possibility left is an increase in agricultural production yields. This is turn is the main driver for the increase in fertiliser usage worldwide. 

Total Arable Land and Total Arable Land per Capita

Total Arable Land

Source: FCA

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